{"id":708,"date":"2013-09-08T16:46:40","date_gmt":"2013-09-08T20:46:40","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.jsylvest.com\/blog\/?p=708"},"modified":"2013-10-02T13:19:32","modified_gmt":"2013-10-02T17:19:32","slug":"groceries","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.jsylvest.com\/blog\/2013\/09\/groceries\/","title":{"rendered":"Groceries"},"content":{"rendered":"

Arnold Kling :: The Costco Business Model<\/a><\/p>\n

Eventually, I could imagine an equilibrium in which a store like Giant pares back on the number of items it sells in the store, keeping only the most popular items available. You would have to order less-popular items on line. That way, they could cut back on those restocking costs.<\/p>\n

Of course, for all I know, Giant\u2019s business model is to charge a big markup on stuff, and they figure once they get you into the store they make a profit. And if stocking a great variety of items gets you into the store, then that is the right strategy.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

I don't think it can work that way. The grocery business is a lot like an old rule of thumb we have in software: 80% of users only use 20% of features<\/em>. The trick is that everyone uses a different 20%<\/a><\/em>. You can't implement 20% of the features from your software and expect retain 80% of the users.<\/p>\n

Similarly a grocer is forced to stock everything a customer might expect to get for their weekly shop. If there are one or two items out of 100 that I can't get, then I have to go to another store. And once I'm there, I'm getting everything<\/em> I need there. When you stopped stocking that $4 jar of olives you haven't just lost $4 in revenue from me, you've lost several thousand dollars annually because I've taken all of my custom elsewhere.<\/p>\n

I believe a few stores (Aldi, IIRC) have managed to pare down the selection and have customers put up with it, but that's because the customers understand what they gain is exceptionally low prices. There's an explicit deal being made between them. That's not a model a median store like Giant could go to. Similarly Trader Joe's has managed to carve out a niche of stocking very few SKUs, but virtually no one expects it to be a comprehensive shopping trip. They can get away with that specifically because they're the exception to the rule. There's not room in the market for everyone to play that niche game.<\/p>\n

The idea of having people order in advance online is interesting. It could be nice to have a system a little like a comic book shop, where you go in and the store already has a sack of the things you've pre-ordered waiting for you. Ultimately I don't think it will work for two reasons: (1) most people want to pick their produce out themselves, which has hampered PeaPod and all the other online grocery delivery businesses; (2) the vast majority of people will not put any effort into planning their shopping trip in advance.<\/p>\n

Almost no one actually writes out a comprehensive grocery list, to say nothing of firing up a computer and pre-purchasing. I saw some stats on grocery planning on a personal finance blog at some point, but I can't find them. Luckily we don't need them: just keep an eye out for how many people in your local store have anything resembling a list. In my experience the intersection in the sets \"people who have a grocery list\" and \"people without babies\/toddlers with them\" is usually just me. And even I've only got four or five items scrawled on an index card, not my whole list.<\/p>\n

I could be quite wrong about this. Most of what I understand of the grocery business comes from extending micro-econ first principals and reading Management in Ten Words<\/em><\/a>, by Terry Leahy, the ex-CEO of Tesco. Still, the margins on groceries stores are famously thin — about 2% IIRC — so we know the market is very competitive. The adoption of a near-universal strategy in an environment like that means that we should at least start with the assumption that that strategy is very efficient, if not near optimal for current conditions.<\/p>\n

\n

The\u00a0McArdle post<\/a> which Kling quotes in the post above had this very good line:<\/p>\n

If you want Wal-Mart to have a labor force like Trader Joe\u2019s and Costco, you probably want them to have a business model like Trader Joe\u2019s and Costco — which is to say that you want them to have a customer demographic like Trader Joe\u2019s and Costco.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

It's good to keep in mind these things are not mutually orthogonal.<\/p>\n

\n

See also this week's EconTalk with Mike Munger<\/a>, which is largely about grocery stores and consumer sovereignty. (And, incidentally, how naive Michael Pollan is about business.)<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Arnold Kling :: The Costco Business Model Eventually, I could imagine an equilibrium in which a store like Giant pares back on the number of items it sells in the store, keeping only the most popular items available. You would … Continue reading →<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[11],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-708","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-business-2","wpautop"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p3sddF-bq","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":846,"url":"https:\/\/www.jsylvest.com\/blog\/2013\/12\/writing-software-is-not-a-political-process\/","url_meta":{"origin":708,"position":0},"title":"Writing software is not a political process","author":"jsylvest","date":"13 December 2013","format":false,"excerpt":"Let's put aside how we personally feel about ObamaCare for a moment. Ignore for the time being any considerations of the politics, economics, efficiency, justice, equity, etc. of the law. ((After all, you, dear readers, are strangers to me, and I find it slightly uncivilized to discuss politics, religion or\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Business \/ Economics"","block_context":{"text":"Business \/ Economics","link":"https:\/\/www.jsylvest.com\/blog\/category\/business-2\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Compilers are even more stubborn than the tide.","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.jsylvest.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/11\/canutewaves.jpg?resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":1069,"url":"https:\/\/www.jsylvest.com\/blog\/2017\/06\/friston\/","url_meta":{"origin":708,"position":1},"title":"Friston","author":"jsylvest","date":"29 June 2017","format":false,"excerpt":"Two of my favorite blogs \u2014 Slate Star Codex (topics: psychiatry, social commentary) and Marginal Revolution (topics: economics, everything else) \u2014 have both linked to Karl Friston papers in the last 24 hours. Since one of my bosses is a Friston enthusiast, and he's the only Friston devotee I've ever\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"cogsci\"","block_context":{"text":"cogsci","link":"https:\/\/www.jsylvest.com\/blog\/tag\/cogsci\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"A George divided against itself can not stand.","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.jsylvest.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/06\/worldscolliding-300x300.jpg?resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":971,"url":"https:\/\/www.jsylvest.com\/blog\/2014\/05\/marketing-to-algorithms\/","url_meta":{"origin":708,"position":2},"title":"Marketing to Algorithms?","author":"jsylvest","date":"29 May 2014","format":false,"excerpt":"Toby Gunton :: Computer says no \u2013 why brands might end up marketing to algorithms I know plenty about algorithms, and enough about marketing. ((Enough to draw a paycheck from a department of marketing for a few years, at least.)) And despite that, I'm not sure what this headline actually\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Business \/ Economics"","block_context":{"text":"Business \/ Economics","link":"https:\/\/www.jsylvest.com\/blog\/category\/business-2\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.kurzweilai.net\/images\/permutation-city.jpg?resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":1228,"url":"https:\/\/www.jsylvest.com\/blog\/2019\/04\/art-in-space\/","url_meta":{"origin":708,"position":3},"title":"Art in Space","author":"jsylvest","date":"22 April 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"Today I'm going to put on my Tyler Cowen hat and speculate about what art work will be valuable when humans are space-faring. That's a pretty big range of possibilities, so let's keep things to a realistic, near(-ish) future. That means ignoring Iain Banks-type, post-singularity futures in which people are\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Art"","block_context":{"text":"Art","link":"https:\/\/www.jsylvest.com\/blog\/category\/art\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.jsylvest.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/04\/160126_NorthFront_MidTownCeres_Concept_B_v5.jpg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.jsylvest.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/04\/160126_NorthFront_MidTownCeres_Concept_B_v5.jpg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.jsylvest.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/04\/160126_NorthFront_MidTownCeres_Concept_B_v5.jpg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.jsylvest.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/04\/160126_NorthFront_MidTownCeres_Concept_B_v5.jpg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.jsylvest.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/04\/160126_NorthFront_MidTownCeres_Concept_B_v5.jpg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":234,"url":"https:\/\/www.jsylvest.com\/blog\/2013\/04\/manfred-mohr\/","url_meta":{"origin":708,"position":4},"title":"Manfred Mohr","author":"jsylvest","date":"9 April 2013","format":false,"excerpt":"I saw this post on Manfred Mohr's (very!) early digital art literally minutes after picking up a book about Mohr's work from the library yesterday. Total coincidence. I like a lot of the pioneering digital artists' work. I think the restraints gave them a lot of focus. (Limits boost creativity.)\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Art"","block_context":{"text":"Art","link":"https:\/\/www.jsylvest.com\/blog\/category\/art\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"p231, Manfred Mohr","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.jsylvest.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/04\/Mohr-p231.gif?resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":129,"url":"https:\/\/www.jsylvest.com\/blog\/2013\/04\/reading-list-for-2-apr-2013\/","url_meta":{"origin":708,"position":5},"title":"Reading List for 2 Apr 2013","author":"jsylvest","date":"4 April 2013","format":false,"excerpt":"Alan Winfield's Web Log ::\u00a0Extreme debugging \u2014 a tale of microcode and an oven \"Components on the CPU circuit board were melting, but still it didn't crash. So that's how I debugged code with an oven.\" If that's not a closing line that gets you to click through, I don't\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Reading Lists"","block_context":{"text":"Reading Lists","link":"https:\/\/www.jsylvest.com\/blog\/category\/reading-lists\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.jsylvest.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/708","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.jsylvest.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.jsylvest.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.jsylvest.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.jsylvest.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=708"}],"version-history":[{"count":9,"href":"https:\/\/www.jsylvest.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/708\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":829,"href":"https:\/\/www.jsylvest.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/708\/revisions\/829"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.jsylvest.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=708"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.jsylvest.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=708"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.jsylvest.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=708"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}