{"id":205,"date":"2013-05-29T15:44:43","date_gmt":"2013-05-29T20:44:43","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.jsylvest.com\/blog\/?p=205"},"modified":"2013-10-01T00:26:52","modified_gmt":"2013-10-01T04:26:52","slug":"traffic-tom-vanderbilt","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.jsylvest.com\/blog\/2013\/05\/traffic-tom-vanderbilt\/","title":{"rendered":"\"Traffic,\" Tom Vanderbilt"},"content":{"rendered":"

This is a good compendium. Nothing too ground-breaking here, but Vanderbilt does cover a lot of ground.<\/p>\n

I especially liked that Vanderbilt addressed self-driving cars. Traffic<\/em> was published in 2009; I didn't expect then that producers would have made as much progress towards autonomous vehicles as they have in the last four years. I am more optimistic about overcoming regulatory hurdles than I was then, but I still believe those will be bigger obstacles than any technological difficulties.<\/p>\n

\"Traffic:<\/a>
Traffic: Why We Drive the Way We Do (and What It Says About Us), Tom Vanderbilt<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

I find any serious discussion of congestion, mass transit, electric vehicles, hybrids, land use, urban planning, fuel usage, carbon emissions, etc. pretty pointless if it doesn't consider the transformative effects of autonomous vehicles. Planning a new highway or commuter rail line that's supposed to be useful for the next fifty years without considering robo-cars feels like some 1897 Jules Verne-esque proto-steampunk fantasy that predicts the next century will look just like the last one except it will have more telegraphs and longer steam trains. You might as well be sitting around in a top hat and frock coat micromanaging where you'll be putting all the stables and coal bunkers for the next five generations, oblivious to Messrs Benz, Daimler, Peugeot et al. motoring around on your lawn.<\/p>\n

I think you can wrap most of the problems of traffic congestion up into several short, unimpeachable statements:<\/p>\n

    \n
  1. Costs can take the form of both money and time.<\/li>\n
  2. Lowering the cost of something means people will do more of it, ceteris paribus.<\/li>\n
  3. Reducing traffic congestion reduces the time-cost of driving.<\/li>\n
  4. The reduced cost of driving causes people to want to drive more, raising traffic congestion again.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

    Unless someone can show me one of those four statements is incorrect, I'm comfortable concluding that traffic is here to stay for the foreseeable future.<\/p>\n

    Plenty people think they have the cure for congestion: roundabouts, light rail, \"livable communities,\" bike sharing, HOV lanes, high-density residences, abolishing free parking, mileage fees, congestion fees, etc. Some of these are good ideas, and some aren't. But I'm not taking anyone who claims to solve (or even alleviate) the traffic problem seriously unless they can address how their solution interacts with #1-4 above.<\/p>\n

    For some of the proposals the resolution is simple: they lower the time-cost but explicitly raise the monetary cost (e.g. congestion pricing, market-based rates for parking). Others don't have such an easy time of it. But either way, I'd like people to at least be able to address how they would break out of this feedback loop.<\/p>\n

    \n

    PS<\/i> I once sat through an hour-long keynote by an eminent professor from MIT Sloan on modeling market penetration of alternative fuel vehicles. Half of his talk ended up being about gas shortages, both in the 1970s and after Hurricane Sandy. At no point in those thirty minutes did he once mention the word \"price\"!<\/em> Everything I had heard about the distinction between freshwater and saltwater economics snapped into focus.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

    This is a good compendium. Nothing too ground-breaking here, but Vanderbilt does cover a lot of ground. I especially liked that Vanderbilt addressed self-driving cars. Traffic was published in 2009; I didn't expect then that producers would have made as … Continue reading →<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[11,13],"tags":[14,4],"class_list":["post-205","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-business-2","category-reviews","tag-books","tag-econ","wpautop"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p3sddF-3j","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":278,"url":"https:\/\/www.jsylvest.com\/blog\/2013\/04\/reading-list-for-26-april-2013\/","url_meta":{"origin":205,"position":0},"title":"Reading List for 26 April 2013","author":"jsylvest","date":"26 April 2013","format":false,"excerpt":"Tom Murphy :: learnfun & playfun: A general technique for automating NES games Wow. Here's the conference paper [pdf]. This suggested to me that it may be time to automate the playing of NES games, in order to save time. (Rather, to replace it with time spent programming.) Ha! I've\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Reading Lists"","block_context":{"text":"Reading Lists","link":"https:\/\/www.jsylvest.com\/blog\/category\/reading-lists\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":1046,"url":"https:\/\/www.jsylvest.com\/blog\/2017\/07\/what-ive-been-reading\/","url_meta":{"origin":205,"position":1},"title":"What I've Been Reading","author":"jsylvest","date":"25 July 2017","format":false,"excerpt":"Banana: The Fate of the Fruit That Changed the World, Dan Koeppel Not bad. I'm a sucker for this type of history of a single commodity or common household object. It did make we want to try to get my hands on one of the few non-Cavendish cultivars of bananas\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Book List"","block_context":{"text":"Book List","link":"https:\/\/www.jsylvest.com\/blog\/category\/book-list\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Banana, Dan Koeppel","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.jsylvest.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/06\/71K3llKhVL-200x300.jpg?resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":5,"url":"https:\/\/www.jsylvest.com\/blog\/2013\/02\/netflix-marathon\/","url_meta":{"origin":205,"position":2},"title":"Netflix Marathon","author":"jsylvest","date":"14 February 2013","format":false,"excerpt":"Tyler Cowen :: Will marathon viewing become the TV norm? On Friday, Netflix will release a drama expressly designed to be consumed in one sitting: \u201cHouse of Cards,\u201d a political thriller starring Kevin Spacey and Robin Wright. Rather than introducing one episode a week, as distributors have done since the\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Business \/ Economics"","block_context":{"text":"Business \/ Economics","link":"https:\/\/www.jsylvest.com\/blog\/category\/business-2\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"house_of_cards","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.jsylvest.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/02\/house_of_cards-300x168.jpg?resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":885,"url":"https:\/\/www.jsylvest.com\/blog\/2014\/01\/latitude-longitude-distance\/","url_meta":{"origin":205,"position":3},"title":"Latitude-Longitude Distance","author":"jsylvest","date":"20 January 2014","format":false,"excerpt":"Updated: I noticed a floating point error when using this that I discuss correcting at the end of this post. I thought I would post some of the bite-sized coding pieces I've done recently. 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